About one in eleven. On Polymarket's touch contracts, which pay if bitcoin trades at a level at any point before 2027, $100,000 was priced at 9%, $90,000 at 24% and $120,000 at 3%, Bitcoin.com News reported on Saturday, November 7. The downside is priced higher: 52% for a touch of $70,000, 31% for $65,000 and 18% for $60,000. Kalshi, which settles on where bitcoin ends December 31 using the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, had its two most popular brackets side by side, $75,000 to $79,999.99 at 17.6% and $70,000 to $74,999.99 at 17.5%, with about $46 million traded. For November alone, Polymarket put an $80,000 touch at 56% and $72,500 at 61%. These are prices people pay for contracts, not forecasts, and the Myriad market the article also checked had so little volume that it called those quotes "extremely poor independent evidence." Bitcoin was at $75,723 at noon Eastern Saturday. From there the math for $100,000 by year end is a 32.1% gain in 55 days, about 0.51% a day or 3.6% a week, compounded, while $70,000 is 7.6% below. See what it takes for bitcoin to hit $100,000 by any date you choose.