Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro today, with polls closing at 5 p.m. Brasília time, 4 p.m. Eastern. The final Datafolha survey, taken October 23 and 24 from 4,050 interviews with a 2-point margin of error, put Flávio at 51% of valid votes to Lula's 49%, and prediction markets lean further, with Kalshi showing 83% to 18% as of 8 p.m. Eastern on October 24, per The Rio Times. Analyst Diogo Velho Barreto of Pequod Investimentos lays out the market reading: a Flávio win points to a firmer real, lower rate futures and stronger stocks, while a Lula win points to pressure on the real and higher rates, and Goldman Sachs and Macquarie both say the fiscal plan stays unclear either way, down to who would run the Finance Ministry. The real has swung hard on the race. It hit a 17-month high near 4.98 per dollar after the October 5 first round, and the latest confirmed quote we have, from last Monday morning, was about R$5.05. All of this happens against a firm dollar, which Trading Economics had up 1.59% over a month and 3.46% over a year as of October 16, after an 18-month high on October 15. That mix lands on Brazil's crypto buyers in a way it does not on Americans. Registered providers handled $14.68 billion of crypto purchases in the first half of 2026, up 135% from $6.24 billion a year earlier, and more than 90% of it was stablecoins, according to Central Bank of Brazil data reported by Bitcoin.com News. A dollar stablecoin bought in reais is a bet against the real, and bitcoin's price in reais is its dollar price multiplied by the exchange rate, so tonight's result can move what a Brazilian pays for bitcoin even if bitcoin itself does not move. Binance users in Brazil also lose access to Binance Pool and seven other products from October 27.