Bitcoin rose every October from 2019 through 2024, and five of the seventeen Octobers on record have closed red, which is a thinner basis than the seasonal talk suggests. The most recent one is the problem: October 2025 finished lower after a tariff scare triggered $19 billion in liquidations, and it did that in the same month Bitcoin printed its $126,080 all-time high. Seasonality does not survive contact with a real catalyst, and this year the catalyst is already on the calendar in the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, with cooling inflation having pushed hike odds below 50%. Bitcoin is also beating its worst month for the second time, and the last time it managed that it fell 23% in the quarter that followed.