Bitcoin closed the week back above $81,000 and above its 50-week moving average, an outcome few would have predicted on Wednesday. The week delivered the Fed's first hike since 2023, a surprise Bank of Japan increase, and the Clarity Act failing cloture in the Senate, and Bitcoin initially fell toward a $74,000 support floor on all three. The recovery from there is the story, since it happened without any of those three developments reversing. The downside case has not gone away: a weekly close below the 50-week moving average would repeat the failed breakout pattern seen near $81,000 in late August and early September.