Annual core inflation slowed to 2.4%, its lowest in 66 months, which is what sparked the initial rally. The monthly figures told the opposite story: headline CPI rose 0.4%, the biggest monthly increase since May 2026, core rose 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, and core services excluding housing jumped 0.5%. That supercore strength, which excludes both energy and shelter, is the reading that cannot be blamed on the Iran conflict and oil. CME FedWatch and Polymarket both moved the probability of a September 16 hike from around 60% a week ago to above 85%.