Measured from the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,296, Bitcoin is roughly nine months into its bear phase carrying a drawdown near 47%, shallower at this stage than any prior cycle. Analysts using the cycle framework put the historical window for a trough at September through November 2026, which is now. That cuts both ways: it means a bottom may be close, and it means the mildness of the decline so far is not evidence the decline is finished.