CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25 basis point hike next week between 58% and 60%, while Polymarket has it at 51.5%, a gap worth noting given both are supposedly pricing the same event. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.80%, lifting discount rates across every duration asset. Traders have marked $78,000 to $78,500 as the shelf that has to hold, with a daily close below opening the way toward $75,000.