Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act passing in 2026 have collapsed from an 82% peak in February to roughly 16% after the Senate left Washington on August 8 without a floor vote. The next procedural motion is set for September 15 and needs 60 senators to clear cloture. Unresolved fights over illicit-finance provisions, stablecoin yield, and government ethics language are what kept it off the floor.