Bitcoin opened August around $63,000, roughly half its October 2025 peak of $126,000, with underwater buyers capping every attempt to push past $65,500. August has historically been Bitcoin's weakest calendar month, with a median loss near 7% that would drag it back toward June's $58,000 low if the pattern repeats. Two data points now dominate the calendar: the August 7 jobs report and July inflation on August 12, with futures traders currently pricing a 60% chance of a September rate hike.